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February 13, 2020

We left off last month warning of pending volatility and that gains in 2020 will be “harder to come by.”  Action in the last week of January is Exhibit A.  News of a coronavirus outbreak sent markets down, wiping out year-to-date gains. 

We’re faced with a mix...

December 11, 2019

Recent U.S. economic data has been reasonably good.  October reports for retail sales, existing home sales, new home sales, and durable goods all exceeded consensus expectations.  In addition, 3rd Quarter GDP was revised up last week from 1.9% to 2.1%.  Combing the GDP...

November 20, 2019

There has been a spate of good news for investors as October has rolled into November.

Third quarter corporate earnings continue to come in above expectations.  There has been positive news on the trade front as China says it has reached an under

standing with the US on...

October 9, 2019

We have to remember that one can’t make too much out of one month of data, but we’ve seen a couple of reports that make us wonder if the consumer’s knees are buckling a bit.  For example, consumer spending in August rose by only .1% after a .5% reading in July and the...

August 15, 2019

July was another positive month for the S&P, but the “feel-good” period after June G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan lasted only one month.  Threats of additional tariffs by the US on Chines import, along with the concern that China is now playing “stall ball” on trade until...

July 11, 2019

There is a path to higher stock prices and more gains this year for our model portfolios.  But after the initial surge to new market highs as trade tensions with China ease for now, it may feel like threading a needle. 

Yes, with the announcement of a truce after t...

May 9, 2019

Things change quickly.  Last month we were hearing so much about the “unmistakable pattern” of slower US economic growth.  We were hardly in the minority.  At press time, the consensus 1st Quarter 2019 GDP estimate was a paltry 1.3%.  The “R” word (recession) was even...

April 11, 2019

The pattern of slower domestic growth is unmistakable. GDP readings for the last three quarters have been +4.3%, +3.4% and +2.2%. A blue chip consensus estimate for the 1st Quarter of 2019 has dropped to a meager 1.3%, although the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast for the 1s...

March 18, 2019

After the January/February market rebound, we see gains harder to come by for US markets.  Prospects are somewhat better overseas, but not good enough on a risk reward basis to expand our commitment at this time. 

The slowing growth we alluded to above is manifest...

February 12, 2019

What a difference a month can make. 

In a newsletter we sent out last month to clients we counseled investors not to overreact after the market staggered to the finish line in 2018.

As we approached year-end 2018, discussion in the financial press of a coming recession i...

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