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Great 1st Quarter! What's to Follow a Recession?

The pattern of slower domestic growth is unmistakable. GDP readings for the last three quarters have been +4.3%, +3.4% and +2.2%. A blue chip consensus estimate for the 1st Quarter of 2019 has dropped to a meager 1.3%, although the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast for the 1st Quarter now has moved above 2% in the last week. Most analysts expect a pickup as the year progresses, based on seasonal factors and more certainty from the Fed. Another culprit, the inversion of the yield curve, has picked up a lot of coverage in the financial press. The yield curve “inverts” when short-term interest rates (typically measured by the 3-month T-Bill) move above the yield on the 10-year note. This occurred for


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