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Things change quickly. Last month we were hearing so much about the “unmistakable pattern” of slower US economic growth. We were hardly in the minority. At press time, the consensus 1st Quarter 2019 GDP estimate was a paltry 1.3%. The “R” word (recession) was even being discussed, although most likely for 2020: Since early April, three big things have happened relative to our analysis: 1st Quarter GDP (despite the effects of the government shutdown) came in at an estimated 3.2%, surprising almost everyone one on the Street. Our “backstop” against recession, the Fed, continues to play its part… but not without a twist. And now, after a few presidential tweets, the China trade front has ex

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